Can We Have Turnout Without Charisma?
There are two parts to a campaign. Knowing where to go to get the necessary votes to win. Having a candidate who can motivate those voters to get off the couch and go to the polls on election day.
Working together they produce turnout – the driving force in every election.
Two comments on the last blog that looked at the numbers behind the 2018 governor’s race address the question of potential turnout this November, an issue that has been nagging at Democrats.
The first centered on voters. The second on the candidate.
The first: “If your focus is getting democrats to vote and not independents then you have already lost.”
The second: “With Biden as the nominee, you have already made sure of lower turnout.”
Both bear discussion.
The percentage of voters who identify themselves with either the Democratic or the Republican Party has been falling and is the lowest since the 1940s, at the beginning of public polling. Back then 80 percent attached themselves to a political party. Since then, the percentage of people who describe themselves as independent has doubled.
Today, voters divide themselves into three relatively equal groups. About a third think of themselves as Democrats, a third think of themselves as Republicans, and a third describe themselves as independents. No election can be won without the support of those who call themselves independents.
After looking at ward and precinct vote totals over the past 50 years I can confidently say that voting habits and patterns don’t change very much. Some people vote in every election, even non-partisan elections for town clerk. Others vote in general elections for statewide offices, and some only in presidential elections. Some vote only occasionally, others, never. And whatever people call themselves they generally end up voting for candidates of the same party that they voted for the last time they went to the polls.
Turnout is what decides elections. The outcome depends on the configuration of voters who choose to go to the polls in that particular election. Very few people express their likes and dislikes by changing their party preference when they vote. Rather they express themselves by either voting or choosing to stay home.
We generally think about voters as existing on a continuum from conservative to liberal and elections are won by winning the “moderates” in the middle.
A more useful model is one that places voters on a continuum from “completely engaged” at one end, to “I don’t give a damn” at the other. In that model, campaign strategy focuses on the forty percent plus of the electorate who never, or seldom, go to the polls, rather than the few in the middle who might change their minds. Elections are won by moving people along the continuum from being less engaged to more engaged, from not voting to voting in this election.
There are several questions to ask in planning strategy. What is the “potential” vote? What is the usual vote? How much is my candidate helped or hurt if turnout increases or decreases?
The definition of “potential Democratic votes” and “potential Republican votes” is the highest number of votes that any presidential candidate of the party has received. In Wisconsin, that would be 1.68 million potential Democratic votes (Obama in ’08), and 1.48 million potential Republican votes (Bush in ’04). The highest total turnout was in 2012 when both presidential candidates (Obama and Romney) got upwards of 95 percent of their party’s potential votes.
The problem for Democratic candidates has for a long time has been the irregularity with which people who would vote Democratic actually do go to the polls. We are not a particularly disciplined party. Which like many things, is both a strength and a weakness. It is who we are, and have been for a long time. As Will Rogers quipped, “I am not a member of any organized political party, I am a Democrat.”
People who vote Republican vote more consistently which is why Republicans have won seven of the last ten races for Governor.
In the last four gubernatorial races, between 80 and 90 percent of potential Republican voters showed up to vote for Walker. In the three races the Democrats lost, only 60 to 69 percent of potential Democratic voters showed up. In the Evers race the percentage of potential Democrats who went to the polls climbed to 79 percent, a 10-point jump, enough to win.
Turnout matters and going after “potential” Democratic voters – regardless of what they call themselves is crucial.
In Kathleen’s first race for the State Senate, the campaign targeted wards in which off-year voting was substantially less than in presidential years. The numbers said that of every 10 additional voters persuaded to go the polls, seven would vote Democratic. History didn’t lie. Turnout increased by 7,000; Kathleen’s total went up by 5,000.
In Buffalo County, in three successive elections the Republican candidate for Senate got within three votes of the same total. When turnout increased by 800, Kathleen got 800 more votes. In the next election when turnout went down by 400, her total went down by 400.
With few exceptions, Democratic candidates in Wisconsin do better when the turnout is larger. We have to go after all of those potential votes.
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The second comment implies that with Joe Biden as the candidate, turnout will be difficult to achieve. No reason is given, but generally when that assertion is made, it is from the point of view that Biden is too moderate and not exciting enough to generate the enthusiasm necessary to win, especially among the young and the supporters of Bernie Sanders.
There is some evidence from our own history that that assessment may not be supported. One would not characterize our Governor as charismatic. Tony, himself, would probably agree that of all the candidates in the 2018 primary he was the most moderate and the least exciting. He won the primary and in the general election got 200,000 more votes than any previous Democratic candidate, beating a Republican who got more votes than any previous Republican candidate. Wisconsin is a calmer state and less polarized since Evers was sworn in.
Hillary did not do well against Trump in Wisconsin. But in the liberal stronghold of Dane County which went 60-40 for Sanders in the primary, she got more votes than any previous Democratic presidential candidate, including Obama in his two races. Then Evers in 2018 got even more votes than Hillary. Progressives can turnout for moderates.
Our preconceptions of what kind of candidate and what kind of campaign will appeal to voters in any particular election are not always borne out. Biden may well be a candidate who fits the times and matches the mood this year of a majority of voters.
Douglas Kane is the author of "Our Politics: Reflections on Political Life" published in 2019 by Southern Illinois University Press
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